There may or may non last a vote inwards the House this week. Look for a Goldilocks-level of difficulty. It can't last also easy, together with it can't last also difficult.
The House is never every bit challenging every bit the Senate. The Republicans convey a bigger margin for mistake inwards the House, numerically, together with fewer moderates, which is to say, basically none. In the Senate, they tin alone lose ii votes, together with they convey Collins together with Murkowski tugging them leftward. Collins together with Cassidy cosponsored a to a greater extent than moderate bill, thus count them every bit iii collectively, together with thus y'all convey the 4 signatories of that alphabetic lineament demanding a reduction of those Medicaid cuts. That's 7 Senators whose positions seem less hard-line than the House.
Then, y'all convey basic Senate rules. The Republicans are doing this through "budget reconciliation," which agency that nix included inwards the pecker tin last non-budgetary. Some of what's inwards the pecker may convey problems amongst the Senate parliamentarian, similar the provision that insurers jack upward their rates on anyone who has a lapse inwards coverage, since that doesn't straight impact either taxes or outlays.
The Senate is
always to a greater extent than difficult. So, if the Republicans convey also hard a fourth dimension inwards the House this week, thus things are looking
really bleak for a repeal of Obamacare. So here's where things larn actually fun. If Ryan is smart, together with things larn challenging, he'll delay or cancel a vote. If his whip count comes inwards together with he doesn't convey a majority, the final matter he wants is to "get rolled" (Congress jargon for what happens when the bulk party's formal seat loses on the floor). That rarely happens. Why? Partially, a smart Speaker won't concur a vote if he thinks he'll larn rolled. If the vote gets delayed or canceled, shit is getting bleak for Ryancare/Trumpcare/whatevercare.
But recall I said something almost a Goldilocks-level of difficulty...
What almost "too easy?" Well, if the vote is also easy, that agency everyone knows this is theater, together with they're merely passing something symbolic. So, Ryan makes a bunch of concessions to the Freedom Caucus, puts the pecker on the floor, they larn peradventure a duet of defections from, tell Ileana Ros-Lehtinen together with the others who exceed for moderates inwards today's House, together with telephone telephone it a day, knowing that Collins, Murkowski, Cassidy together with a few others volition kill the whole matter inwards the Senate anyway, thus they become dwelling family together with relax.
This is alone serious policy-making if it is difficult, but non
too difficult. How hard is that? I... don't know. Honestly, the Senate is the existent battleground anyway, which I've been proverb all along (I'm pretty sure). I'm merely making ii points: If they can't fifty-fifty grapple this inwards the House, thus they can't larn it together inwards the Senate, together with if they aren't taking it seriously inwards the House, they likely think it's a lost crusade inwards the Senate.
This should last a fun week.